Fair enough. But the numbers tell a more complicated story – and for buyers at the affordable end of the market, holding out may not deliver the bargain you’re hoping for.
Here’s what we’re seeing, and what it could mean for your plans.
Yes, values have softened - but not evenly
So the market has cooled. That’s real.
But conditions vary a lot between cities – and, more importantly for first home buyers, between price brackets. The headline number is being dragged down by the top end of the market. The affordable end is a different story.
The affordable end is holding up
As a guide, over the three months to August:
In Sydney, values across the top 25% of the market fell 5.7%. The most affordable 25% fell just 2.1%.
In Melbourne, the most expensive quarter of the market dropped 5.3%. The cheapest quarter fell only 1.3%.
Why does this matter? Because most first-home buyers start out in exactly that segment – and it’s the segment seeing the smallest falls, if any at all.
Why aren't affordable homes falling as much?
Steady first home buyer demand. More than 29,000 first home buyers purchased a property in the June quarter of 2026 – about the same as the same quarter last year. That demand hasn’t gone anywhere.
Government support. Initiatives like the 5% Deposit Scheme, the First Home Owner Grant and stamp duty concessions are helping buyers get into the market without a full 20% deposit – which keeps competition alive at the affordable end.
Simple maths. There are far more people who can afford an entry-level home than a luxury one. Fewer buyers at the top means more room for prices to fall up there. More buyers at the bottom means less.
Curious whether you could qualify for a first home buyer scheme? Let’s see what’s possible – get in touch with FirstPoint.
What this means for first home buyers
Want to know where you stand? Online calculators only tell part of the story. Have a conversation with FirstPoint.
In other words, waiting for a big drop in the bracket you’re actually shopping in could mean waiting for something that never quite arrives.
That doesn’t automatically mean prices will rise. But more buyers competing for a limited number of affordable homes may put upward pressure on prices – or at the very least, limit how far they fall.
Across some of those suburbs, online buyer searches have more than doubled compared to a year ago.
The bottom line
That’s not a reason to rush. It is a reason to be prepared. If you know your borrowing position, have your pre-approval sorted and understand which schemes you may be eligible for, you can move with confidence when the right property shows up – rather than watching it go to someone ready.
Preparation over guesswork. That’s how we approach it at FirstPoint.
If you’re a first home buyer wondering whether you’re loan-ready right now, have a chat with the team. Call us on 9527 2230 and we’ll look at the full picture together.
